Secretary-General of the Arab Energy Organization (AEO) – formerly OAPEC – Jamal Al-Loughani said on Wednesday that the global economy saw a relative improvement in its performance during the second quarter of 2025, driven primarily by accelerated spending on goods imports in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs, alongside improved global financial conditions.

In remarks to the Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) on the occasion of the organization’s release of its second quarterly report for 2025 on global oil conditions, Al-Loughani added that projections for global economic growth in 2025 have risen to 3%, up from previous estimates of 2.8%.

He noted that the absence of comprehensive trade agreements has heightened concerns over the negative impact of persistent uncertainty in global trade, pointing out that the quarterly average spot price of the OPEC crude basket fell by 12.1% to $67.4 per barrel.

Futures prices for crude oil also saw quarterly losses, with Brent crude contracts declining by 10.8% to $66.8 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contracts dropping to $63.7 per barrel.

Al-Loughani attributed this mainly to shifts in U.S. trade policy and related concerns over slowing global economic growth, leading to weaker oil demand, as well as the fading of geopolitical risks associated with potential supply disruptions.

He also cited the downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating to AA+ due to rising government debt, which fueled doubts about the performance of the world’s largest oil-consuming economy, alongside slowing industrial production and retail sales growth in China.

Global oil supply—including crude and natural gas liquids—rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter to 104 million barrels per day (mb/d), driven by increased output from OPEC+ countries and higher U.S. supplies.

Meanwhile, global oil demand dipped slightly by 0.03% quarter-on-quarter to 104.3 mb/d, weighed down by declining consumption in China and other Asian economies.

Total global commercial and strategic oil inventories rose by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, reaching approximately 9.290 billion barrels by the end of Q2 2025.

The estimated value of crude oil exports from AEO member states in Q2 2025 fell by 9.5% from the previous quarter to around $100 billion, primarily due to lower average spot crude prices.

Developments in the global oil market impacted member states’ economic performance in Q2 2025, with declining oil revenues negatively affecting public finances and external balances amid an unstable geopolitical climate and global trade policy uncertainties.

Despite this, member economies remained committed to economic reforms, helping to curb inflation, boost investment, and strengthen labor markets. Non-oil sector growth also provided macroeconomic support.

Al-Loughani anticipated near-term recovery in the oil sector, citing OPEC+ member decisions—including six AEO members—to implement additional voluntary cuts in April and November 2023, followed by monthly production increases of 411,000 b/d in July, 548,000 b/d in August, and 457,000 b/d in September 2025. These measures are expected to bolster oil revenues, a key national income source supporting sustainable development in member states.

Regarding near-term oil market outlooks, he cautioned that crude price trajectories remain uncertain, with OPEC projecting a decline in non-OPEC+ supply to 53.8 mb/d in Q3 2025. Global oil demand is forecast to rise to 105.5 mb/d, though these estimates remain subject to uncertainties, including escalating global trade tensions, slowing economic growth, weaker oil demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

Al-Loughani praised OPEC+—including six AEO members—for their ongoing efforts to implement precautionary measures aimed at ensuring global oil market stability and balance.