The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Tuesday that global oil supply will remain sufficient to meet worldwide demand through the end of the decade, "barring any major supply disruptions."

In its monthly report, the agency projected that global oil supply will outpace demand growth in coming years amid escalating geopolitical tensions and structural changes in global energy markets.

The IEA forecasted that:

• Global oil demand will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) between 2024-2030, reaching ~105.5 million bpd

• Global supply will grow by 5 million bpd to ~114.7 million bpd during the same period

Key Findings:

1. Production Growth: Primarily driven by the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, with OPEC+ continuing gradual production easing

2. China Demand Peak: Chinese demand (which drove growth for a decade) will peak in 2027 due to EV sales growth and green transport infrastructure expansion

3. EV Impact: Record 2024 EV sales (17 million units) may exceed 20 million in 2025, potentially reducing oil demand by ~5.4 million bpd by 2030

4. Demand Shifts: Non-petrochemical oil demand may peak in 2027, while petrochemicals become the primary demand driver from 2026

Executive Director Fatih Birol warned:
"Global oil markets are moving toward balance, driven by changing consumer behaviors and supply sources... but geopolitical risks remain a major threat to energy security that cannot be ignored."

The IEA reaffirmed its commitment to work with energy producers and consumers to maintain market stability and supply security amid rapid transformations.